Michael Alexeevich Popov
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Brexit, Trump, mathematics and consequences
38 Replies

Started this discussion. Last reply by Abraham Heinemann Mar 9.

Quantum Mechanics for anthropologists.
30 Replies

Started this discussion. Last reply by Michael Alexeevich Popov Mar 27, 2015.

Another kind of Definitions
4 Replies

Started this discussion. Last reply by Michael Alexeevich Popov Dec 6, 2011.

Dasein -i-sation

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Michael Alexeevich Popov's Page

Latest Activity

Abraham Heinemann replied to Michael Alexeevich Popov's discussion Brexit, Trump, mathematics and consequences
"I see this is a resilient and on-going thread Michael. As the site is moving over to here www.openanthcoop.net, if you still wish to keep this thread going I could move it over there if you wish to keep hosting this discussion? Otherwise look…"
Mar 9
Michael Alexeevich Popov replied to Michael Alexeevich Popov's discussion Brexit, mathematics, consequences
"ITALY 4 / 5.12.2016 An attempt to prevent new independence movements in Italy was failed. Taleb's Fragility transfer theorem (2012) needs some reinforcement -  effect of self - reproducing Black Swans is possible."
Dec 6, 2016
Michael Alexeevich Popov replied to Michael Alexeevich Popov's discussion Brexit, mathematics, consequences
"As you know both mathematicians and anthropologists usually try to understand new phenomena in the field, or to find new simulations in the laboratory. My limited experience of understanding and prediction of BS events in policy in some sense is…"
Nov 18, 2016
John McCreery replied to Michael Alexeevich Popov's discussion Brexit, mathematics, consequences
"The difficulty is separating true Black Swans, totally unexpected events, from rare but predictably rare events, especially when there is negligence in the model from which criteria are taken. The Fukushima reactor meltdown following the Great East…"
Nov 18, 2016
Michael Alexeevich Popov replied to Michael Alexeevich Popov's discussion Brexit, mathematics, consequences
"It could be shaped - because nobody knows exact form of curve in future BS events. I used different way of scientific based predictions. In comparison successful Cambridge group ( Oraclum Intelligence systems ) applied Bayesian Adjusted Social…"
Nov 17, 2016
John McCreery replied to Michael Alexeevich Popov's discussion Brexit, mathematics, consequences
"I am not sure what to make of "shaped by black swan type events." As opposed to being black swan events."
Nov 17, 2016
Michael Alexeevich Popov replied to Michael Alexeevich Popov's discussion Brexit, mathematics, consequences
"LIST OF POLITICAL EVENTS PROBABLY SHAPED BY SWAN BLACK TYPE EVENTS 2016 - 2017 1.Brexit - total EU exit 2.Scotland independence referendum - UK drama 3.Trump USexit 4.China - USA conflict 5.NATO - Russia military conflict 6.Elections in Germany and…"
Nov 17, 2016
Michael Alexeevich Popov replied to Michael Alexeevich Popov's discussion Brexit, mathematics, consequences
"John, thanks Mathematically, Brexit and Trump have similarity. Gap between two sides was strangely minimal, about 2-3 before event ( 24 Sept ). Hence highly unlikely event of Black Swan type is arising...For majority of professional…"
Nov 17, 2016
John McCreery replied to Michael Alexeevich Popov's discussion Brexit, mathematics, consequences
"Michael, Very interesting. But how does the mathematical model account for the facts that (1) in Britain, the Brexit vote produced a narrow majority in favor of Brexit and (2) that Hillary Clinton has won a popular majority but still lost the…"
Nov 17, 2016
Michael Alexeevich Popov replied to Michael Alexeevich Popov's discussion Brexit, mathematics, consequences
"POST - TRUMP REALITY : Can you prove that what you are doing now in social sciences is not the next Great Western Illusion ?"
Nov 15, 2016
Michael Alexeevich Popov replied to Huon Wardle's discussion The polls got it wrong, again... The end of 'social science'? Time to stop predicting and start listening...
"What prediction Malinowski may have made about highly unlikely event ? To study it, but not to speculate about Trump unconsciousness. As professional applied mathematician of the 1920s he had limited choice, his slighly "naive" functional…"
Nov 13, 2016
Michael Alexeevich Popov shared their discussion on Facebook
Nov 13, 2016
Michael Alexeevich Popov replied to Michael Alexeevich Popov's discussion Brexit prediction and Weil's theorem
"Let us continue our systematic work... ANALYSIS OF OUR SUCCESSFUL PREDICTION. Essential steps: Step 1 (27 June) Brexit is defined as a very rare unpredictable "Black Swan" (BS) ( in Taleb's sense ) event which can produce series of…"
Nov 10, 2016
Michael Alexeevich Popov replied to Michael Alexeevich Popov's discussion Brexit prediction and Weil's theorem
"Real Black Swan... again !"
Nov 9, 2016
Michael Alexeevich Popov replied to Michael Alexeevich Popov's discussion Brexit prediction and Weil's theorem
"Trump or Clinton ? Malinowski probably was the first who applied Banach spaces ( functional analysis) in ethnography. It is very interesting math connected with divided spaces of the whole superspace expressed by Banach algebra. Following…"
Nov 7, 2016
John McCreery replied to Michael Alexeevich Popov's discussion Brexit prediction and Weil's theorem
"Could it be that we could make more progress by devoting less attention to what our intellectual ancestors are purported to have done and spending more of our time thinking about what is now possible? I think, in particular, of the analysis and…"
Nov 5, 2016

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Michael Alexeevich Popov
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the Royal Anthropological Institute

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Michael Alexeevich Popov's Blog

Palmyra.

MISHKAPC%20-%20WIN_20160328_133649.JPG

"The Syrian regime with military help from Russia regime" are back in control of beautiful Palmyra. This success of one "of the vilest regimes on Earth" is not result of any particular British, French, Italian,American or Western policy... How could it be ? Was…

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Posted on March 28, 2016 at 3:08pm

Anthropology and Becoming War. NATO Turkey downs Russian warplane

In practice the war-peace process can be incredibly fragile : the slightest unreasonable disturbance will disrupt the delicate agreement and destroy any possibility of peaceful political computation.We are living in the period of becoming war and as anthropologists we must help to develop some error-correcting code of peace.There is rapid growth of computational complexity. Already now...

Posted on November 24, 2015 at 4:00pm — 12 Comments

War and Peace."Formalists" vs "Essentialists" in ethnic identity theory

I afraid theory of ethnic identity became an important part of  today’s world politics in wrong time when  a dispute between “formalists” and “essentialists” on nature of ethnic identity  is not  discontinued and “hidden” collision  of these two schools of thinking in social anthropology is continuing.  As is known, formalists believe  that ethnic identity ( as some social set of all sets ) is merely a political cognitive formal construction, correspondingly,  it is not important. For…

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Posted on January 27, 2015 at 6:09pm — 1 Comment

Ethnic identity as natural phenomenon

Anthropologist and statistician S.M. Shirokogoroff in 1930s made an attempt to understand ethnic identity as an object of natural sciences ( incl funct anthropology ). He uses elementary equations of statistical thermodynamic in order to describe ethnogenesis as processes of statistical self-organization. In contrast, today social anthropologists and governments behave like they already had found complete proof of theorem on social nature of ethnic identity and all counterexamples are…

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Posted on January 28, 2014 at 1:52pm — 11 Comments

Remark on the fieldwork in Anthropology of Science and Technology

This remark is inspired by Marianne de Laet ‘s anthropological comments ( Nature vol 501: 164-165,12 Sept 2013 ) on Harry Collins (2013) new book ‘Gravity’s Ghost and Big Dog : Scientific Discovery and Social Analysis in the 21st Century ‘ (University Chicago Press ).

Harry Collins produced brilliant  systematic sociological account of his almost 40 years (!) fieldwork among scientists in the field of gravitational ( relativistic ) astronomy.

It is important…

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Posted on September 24, 2013 at 2:00pm — 2 Comments

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